Written by: Ravi Jain, Vasan Churchill — TDK Ventures
Introduction
The space economy is poised for a meteoric rise, projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, more than tripling in value over the next decade (1). A major driver of this growth is the sharp decline in launch costs since the 1960s, which has enabled a surge in satellite deployment: from a few hundred per year until 2010 to nearly 5,000 annually since 2020 (2; 3). SpaceX dominates the launch landscape, especially for satellites weighing between 200 and 1000kg, and is almost a monopoly. A meaningful gap persists for the medium lift segment, where economics are strongly favorable (4). Entrepreneurs in India, capitalizing on the country’s geographic, talent, and regulatory strengths, are ideally suited to challenge this landscape and emerge as the “SpaceX” of medium-lift launches (19). Bengaluru-based Ethereal Exploration Guild (Guild) embodies this promise, pioneering the first fully reusable medium-lift vehicle to drive costs down to $500–$1,000 per kilogram via innovative reusability and key alliances (1b 9). Here, we outline our investment rationale, exploring market forces, India’s competitive advantages, and The Guild’s approach, which can transform the launch industry.
Space: Still the Final Frontier
The broader space economy, the next frontier for humans, continues to accelerate (1). The launch vehicle market, in particular, represents an opportunity of up to $71 billion, driven by lowering launch costs, and will continue to grow at a 13.2% compound annual growth rate (5). Since the 1960s, launch costs have plummeted from $168,000 per kilogram to around $3,000 per kilogram, enabling a proliferation of payloads (2). For instance, satellite launches, which were limited to a few hundred per year up to 2010, have surged to nearly 5,000 annually since 2020 due to these reduced costs. SpaceX has been the dominant force in this transformation. In the first quarter of 2025, SpaceX accounted for approximately 86% of the 1,198 satellites launched into space (3). However, as with any monopoly, SpaceX prioritizes its Starlink constellation, offering only limited “rideshare” opportunities for other customers. Even at competitive prices as low as $2,600 per kilogram, many customers are seeking alternative launch options with greater schedule control (4; 5).
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Opportunities at the Middle (Medium Weight Lift)
Given this context, a clear supply-demand gap exists for launch services. Launch vehicles can be categorized according to their weight into small (less than 2,000 kilograms), medium/heavy (2,000–50,000 kilograms), and super heavy (greater than 50,000 kilograms), with costs decreasing as payload mass increases (6; 7). While the small lift market is highly crowded, with around 100 global efforts competing to provide such services (8). Medium lift is expected to represent more than 95% of the market share, about $17.2 billion, driven largely by placing 200–1000kg small satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO) (9). Current medium-lift costs range from $3,500 to $6,500 per kilogram, but applying reusability economics pioneered by SpaceX can reduce them meaningfully and make them attractive for new applications that were not even considered before (10). The opportunity lies in developing medium lift launch capabilities with reduced costs through reusability.
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The Advantages of India
India offers unique advantages for startups building reusable launch systems. India boasts geographical advantages, including a latitude that enables a boost velocity of only 453 meters per second due to Earth’s rotation, reducing fuel requirements for launches (11). The Bay of Bengal provides a flexible ocean launch pathway, and the country’s azimuthal range supports launches to geostationary Earth orbit (GEO), LEO, and sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), with a launch-friendly climate for over 280 days per year (12).
Over the past five years, the Indian government has implemented favorable policies, including the establishment of IN-SPACe and the 2023 Indian Space Policy, which legalizes private launch operations and facilitates capital access for space startups (13). Additionally, efforts to commercialize the public small satellite launch vehicle (SSLV) further bolster the sector (13). India’s talent pool is another key asset, with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) employing over 13,000 scientists who collaborate actively with NASA, ESA, and JAXA (14; 15). Combined with a cost-effective Indian supply chain, these factors position India to potentially outpace even SpaceX in the economics of reusable rockets.
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Investment Thesis
The demand-supply gap in the launch vehicle market is significant and expected to persist due to the lack of alternatives to SpaceX. Satellites in the 201–600 kilogram range dominate key use cases, including communications, surveillance, Earth observation, and navigation (16). Launch cost, measured in dollars per kilogram, is the primary driver of spacetech adoption, with unit economics for many applications becoming viable at $500 per kilogram or lower (17). Achieving such low costs is feasible only with medium or heavy-lift reusable rockets.
Small lift launch vehicles serve a niche total addressable market (TAM) of cube satellites and dedicated launches, valued at approximately $1 billion and growing; their unit economics are significantly less favorable, with costs at $5,000 per kilogram or higher (18). India’s unique advantages enhance the viability of launch services offered within the country.
We believe medium-lift startups will disrupt the market, making reusability the norm rather than the exception. Innovations in second-stage reusability over the next few years could create further disruptions. Demand is likely to exceed expectations as new applications emerge.
Small launch vehicles will cater to premium, on-demand use cases with higher per-kilogram costs. Winning in this segment requires driving launch costs toward $500 per kilogram, applying differentiated technologies to lower capex and accelerate development, demonstrating strong capability in engine design and custom manufacturing, and leveraging ISRO’s decades of expertise.
The Guild: Building a Stallion for Space
Based in Bengaluru, India, The Guild is building India’s equivalent to SpaceX, developing the worlds first fully reusable medium-lift launch vehicle to tackle high costs and long wait times in orbital launches (19; 20). Founders Manu Nair, Shubhayu Sardar, and Prashanth Sharma bring exceptional technical expertise from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Manastu Space, and ISRO, complemented by senior leadership from Blue Origin and Boeing (20; 21). The Guild offers launch services for satellites on a dedicated/rideshare basis, with a revenue model based on standard pricing per launch (for dedicated) or dollars per kilogram of payload launched to orbit (for secondary payloads). Their approach to full stage reuse in the medium lift category makes $500–$1,000 per kilogram pricing economically viable (19). The team combines entrepreneurial spirit with space expertise, including scientists trained overseas and ISRO veterans (21). The Guild differentiates itself through innovative design, engineering, in-house simulation tools, and test infrastructure, all contributing to shorter development cycles (21).
The Guild is among the few global companies, and the only one in India, pursuing this problem, trailing the global leaders in technical milestones by just 12–18 months (22). They have designed and manufactured a 40kN upper stage reusable engine (Pegasus) and designed a 1200kN reusable booster engine (Stallion), now entering manufacturing, while signing collaboration agreements with INSPACe and ISRO and building pioneering test infrastructure in India (21). The Guild has secured $130 million in memoranda of understanding with space-ready partners in Japan, TASA (Taiwan), and SABR (a European government launch aggregator) for commercial and government customers in communication, navigation, and Earth observation satellites (23). Their Razor Crest Mk-1 system is designed for a launch, update, replace, refuel, and repeat cycle, featuring a fully reusable booster and upper stage capable of reaching LEO, geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), and translunar injection (TLI) (22; 24). By leveraging digital engineering and learning from the failures of others, including SpaceX, The Guild designed and manufactured the Pegasus engine, including the Thrust Chamber Assembly (TCA) and Turbopump Assembly, and progressed toward the Stallion engine design for less than $5 million in developmental costs, utilizing in-house physics-based simulation tools and test capabilities (22).
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Why We Invested
TDK Ventures invested in The Guild, which we believe is an iconic company, and they represent a rare combination of market timing, technical depth, and cost leadership. They will be a trailblazer poised to reshape the space launch industry. The Guild aligns seamlessly with our vision for transformative innovation, excelling in every critical metric for market leadership: slashing launch costs to $500 per kilogram to unlock vast market potential, pioneering novel technologies to streamline development, and harnessing India’s rich ISRO expertise and cost-efficient supply chain (22). Their Razor Crest Mk-1, a fully reusable medium-lift vehicle, promises to democratize access to space for applications ranging from satellite communications to defense, all while driving costs down and enhancing sustainability through reusable systems (23).
Our partnership extends beyond capital. We will be able to support The Guild to refine avionics for seamless re-entry navigation, select robust commercial and radiation-tolerant components, and develop rigorous space-qualification testing protocols by tapping into TDK’s expertise. In return, TDK gains deep insights into next-generation cutting-edge avionics architectures, and opportunities to build space-grade components for the growing space economy and drive revenue through specialized hardware like power supplies and capacitors as The Guild scales (22). It will be another example of TDK Ventures’ equal win principle. By investing in The Guild, we support a team capable of shaping a meaningful segment of the $1.8 trillion space economy (1).
References
[1] McKinsey & Company and World Economic Forum, “Space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www. mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/ space-the-1–8-trillion-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth
[2] NASA, “Launch Cost Trends and Innovations,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/launch-cost-trends
[3] BryceTech, “Q2 2025 Global Space Activity” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://brycetech.com/reports/report-documents/bryce-briefing-2025-Q2/
[4] SpaceNews, “SpaceX Dominance and Rideshare Challenges,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://spacenews.com/ spacex-dominance-rideshare-challenges-2024
[5] Space Foundation, “Global Space Economy Report,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.spacefoundation.org/space-economy-report-2024
[6] Space.com, “Launch Vehicle Market Segmentation,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.space.com/launch-vehicle-market-segmentation-2023
[7] Satellite Industry Association, “State of the Satellite Indus- try Report,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://sia.org/ state-of-the-satellite-industry-report-2024
[8] Space Intel Report, “Small Launch Vehicle Market Analysis,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://spaceintelreport.com/ small-launch-vehicle-market-2024
[9] Space Foundation, “Medium Lift Market Opportunities,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.spacefoundation.org/ medium-lift-market-opportunities-2024
[10] Space.com, “Cost Analysis of Medium Lift Launches,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.space.com/medium-lift-cost-analysis-2023
[11] Indian Space Research Organisation, “Geographical Advantages for Launches,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.isro.gov.in/ geographical-advantages-launches
[12] Indian Space Research Organisation, “Launch Infrastructure in India,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.isro.gov.in/launch-infrastructure-india
[13] IN-SPACe, “Indian Space Policy 2023,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www. inspace.gov.in/indian-space-policy-2023
[14] Indian Space Research Organisation, “ISRO Workforce and Collabo- rations,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.isro.gov.in/ workforce-collaborations-2024
[15] NASA, “International Collaborations with ISRO,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/international-collaborations-isro-2024
[16] Satellite Industry Association, “Satellite Weight Class Trends,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://sia.org/satellite-weight-class-trends-2024
[17] Space Foundation, “Launch Cost Economics,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https:// www.spacefoundation.org/launch-cost-economics-2024
[18] Space Intel Report, “Small Launch Vehicle Economics,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://spaceintelreport.com/ small-launch-vehicle-economics-2024
[19] EtherealX, “Company Overview and Mission,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https:// www.etherealx.space/company-overview
[20] TechCrunch, “The EtherealX Founders and Vision,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https:// techcrunch.com/etherealx-founders-vision-2025
[21] Space India, “EtherealX Technical Achievements,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://spaceindia.com/etherealx-technical-achievements-2025
[22] SpaceTech Asia, “EtherealX Progress and Global Standing,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://spacetechasia.com/etherealx-progress-2025
[23] Business Standard, “EtherealX MOUs and Partnerships,” 2025. [On- line]. Available: https://www.business-standard.com/ etherealx-mous-partnerships-2025
[24] Space India, “Razor Crest Mk-1 Specifications,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https:// spaceindia.com/razor-crest-mk1-specifications-2025
[G1]The applications of medium lift launch can also include: Dedicated small to medium satellite launches, multi-planar constellations deployment, and ride share (ordering in terms of the higher revenue driver for SpaceX currently). Dedicated launches (with secondary payloads) form a larger part of the non-Starlink launches. Pure rideshare missions like the Transporter and Bandwagon are less frequent in nature.
